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铜资讯铜价上涨铜矿开采将迎来12年内

2019-03-14 02:50:21

铜资讯:铜价上涨 铜矿开采将迎来12年内开局

今年铜矿开采是这12年来的一年,将来也会有更多的资金涌入此行业。

到这个月为止,有超过5亿美元的交易正在进行中或已完成,这是1月彭博数据显示的12年来纪录。

Pala Investments的管理合伙人Stephen Gill在中表示,为了满足金属需求的上涨,在经历了多年矿企投资金额能力不足后,矿业合并现象开始回升。

Gill称:我们看到有大型矿企表明他们需要增加收购计划。由于多年来投资项目少,目前这些公司没有项目计划,只能通过收购来获得盈利,因为需要几年的时间建设一个新的铜矿。

由于供应短缺加剧,2017年铜价攀升至近4年来高位,铜矿开采资金的需求正在飙升。

高盛集团分析师表示,自12月下旬价格攀升至三年高点以来,涨势已经停滞,但前景依然乐观。全球经济同步增长的迹象也正在推动需求前景,这需要尽快上线新的铜矿项目。

根据国际铜业研究组织的数据,去年前10个月,生产消费量减少了17.5万吨。研究小组表示,必和必拓公司的智利Escondida铜矿发生罢工事件之后,供应缺口从去年同期的14.3万吨扩大,且在2017年的年初,自由港-麦克莫兰公司Grasberg出港禁令也缩减了铜供应。

可能会有更多的供应问题存在。彭博分析师Andrew Cosgrove和Eily Ong估计,智利和秘鲁今年将有30多份劳动合同进入谈判阶段,全球近三分之一的铜供应面临中断的风险。

Glencore Plc首席执行官Ivan Glasenberg在12月一次投资者会议上表示:人们忘记了大量铜矿消耗、铜品位下降,以及行业内正在发生的罢工风险。

自由港首席执行官理查德艾德克森(Richard Adkerson)周四表示,在未来十年,

铜资讯铜价上涨铜矿开采将迎来12年内

市场将需要500万吨新铜矿来满足日益增长的需求。同时,他表示,目前正在开采的新矿品味较低。

真正的短缺

Adkerson在公司第四季度财报中表示:现在真的没有大的新项目了。供给反映出投资不足有很长的时间了。即使我们说铜价很高,也不会立即出现新的投资浪潮。

彭博跟踪的铜生产商的资金投入去年下降了一半以上,达到523亿美元,比四年前少了1290美元。

投资的缺乏和寻找有利可图的项目的难度意味着去年在收购方面花费的减少。2017年待交或已完成的交易价值由一年前的30.3亿元缩减至11.5亿元。

彭博数据显示,尽管如此,就交易数量而言,去年铜资产的51项交易至少是12年以来多的一年。

可以肯定的是,1月份的交易表现并不能明确指出年度流入矿业交易的资金量。

与近期的一些大宗交易相比,本月交易额为5.1106亿美元,比如2014年4月嘉能可以70亿美元将Las Bambas铜矿项目出售给MMG公司领导的一个集团,当年的交易达到110亿美元,创2012年以来。

尽管如此,矿业公司将面临很快开始购买新资产的巨大压力,特别是在过去一个月的大部分时间里,铜价已经超过7000美元/吨。

Cosgrove在接受采访时表示:铜的价格与价值将在未来较长的一段内脱钩。同时,他说,资产价格是根据铜价低于7,000美元的价格计算的,因为引入新产能的成本要高得多。

注:本文由上海有色(SMM)翻译。

原文:Copper Mining Deals Off to Best Start in 12 Years as Prices Soar

By Luzi Ann Javier

(Bloomberg)--Copper mining deals are off to the best start in at least 12 years--and more money could be pouring into the sector this year.

More than$500 million in transactions are pending or were completed so far this month,the most recorded for January in Bloomberg data going back 12 rger interest is picking up after years of under-investment limited mining companies

capacity to meet rising demand for the metal,Stephen Gill,a managing partner at Pala Investments,said by phone.

We see the large mining companies indicating their need to buy growth,said Gill,whose mining and metals-focused investment company is the biggest shareholder in Nevada Copper e to years of under-investment,their project pipelines are now empty and can only be replenished through acquisition as it takes years to develop,permit and build a new copper mine.

The appetite for copper-mining assets is surging after prices of the metal climbed the most in seven years in 2017 amid disruptions that widened the shortfall in ile the rally has faltered since prices climbed to a three-year high in late December,Goldman Sachs Group alysts say the outlook remains gns of synchronized global growth also are boosting demand prospects,highlighting the need to bring new copper projects online soon.

Production trailed consumption by 175,000 metric tons in the first 10 months of last year,according to the International Copper Study e deficit widened from 143,000 tons in the same period a year earlier,after a labor strike at BHP Billiton Ltd.s Escondida mine in Chile and a temporary ban on concentrate shipments from Freeport-McMoRan Inc.s Grasberg curtailed supply in the early part of 2017,the study group said.

There may be more supply troubles re than 30 labor contracts are up for negotiations this year in Chile and Peru,putting almost one-fifth of global copper supply at risk of disruption this year,Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Andrew Cosgrove and Eily Ong estimated.

People forgot about the depleting copper mines or the grades declining at a large amount of the copper mines,plus the elevated strike risk which is occurring in the industry,Ivan Glasenberg,chief executive officer of Glencore Plc,said in an investor meeting in December.

Over the next decade,the market would need 5 million tons of copper from new mines to meet growing demand,Freeport CEO Richard Adkerson said Thursday,citing Wood Mackenzie estimates.

New projects being developed have lower ore grade,he said.

Real Absence

There is a real absence of major new projects on the horizon,Adkerson said on the companys fourth-quarter earnings pplys reflecting a very long period of d even as we speak today with higher prices,we dont see a wave of new investments being started immediately.

The combined capital spending of copper producers tracked by Bloomberg Intelligence has plunged by more than half to$52.3 billion last year,from almost$129 billion four years earlier.

The dearth of investments and the difficulty in finding lucrative projects meant less spending on acquisitions last e value of transactions pending or completed in 2017 shrank to$1.15 billion,from$3.03 billion a year earlier.

Still,in terms of number of deals,the 51 transactions last year targeting copper assets were the most in Bloomberg data in at least 12 years.

To be sure,Januarys performance isnt always a clear indicator of the annual flow of money into mining d

$510.6 million in transactions this month pales in comparison to some of the large deals of the recent past,such as the$7 billion sale by Glencore of the Las Bambas copper project to a group led by MMG nounced in April als that year reached$11 billion,the highest since 2012.

Still,mining companies will be under heavy pressure to start buying new assets soon,especially with copper prices trading above$7,000 a metric ton for most of the past month.

Copper valuations are disconnected from where copper prices will ultimately trade in the long run,Cosgrove said in a telephone sets are being valued based on copper prices below$7,000,when the cost of bringing in new capacity is much higher,he said.

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